Re: [ITPOLITIK] [Fwd: Briefing on Next Generation of the Internet - and the migration to Internet Protocol version 6]

[Peter Maersk-Moller <sslug@sslug>]

Dear Per.

> Subject: Briefing on Next Generation of the Internet - and the migration t
>      o Internet Protocol version 6
> Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 14:48:26 +0100
> From: sslug@sslug
> On Thursday 21 February, the European Commission is scheduled to adopt a
> Communication on the Next Generation of the Internet and the migration to
> the new Internet Protocol Version 6.
> In this connection there will be a briefing in the Commission press room at
> 11.30 CET by Mr. Joao Da Silva, Head of Unit at the Directorate General for
> the Information Society.
> 
> He will outline the Commission's initiatives to introduce the next
> generation of the internet in Europe and the migration to the Internet
> Protocol Version 6.
> 
> If nothing is done in this regard, it is expected that there will be a
> significant risk that internet addresses will be exhausted by 2005. So this
> is an issue which concerns all of us working daily with the internet and
> which is of great importance to the European industry.

Having followed this for quite a lot of years, I feel pretty comfortable
claiming, the Mr. Joao Da Silva will look a bit foolish if he present
this as fact. I'm quite sure that the claim can NOT be founded in valid
data. If he is your boss, you ought to spare him for the embarrassment.

The general belief by competent and recognized people with an actual
track record within the field is that an address exhaustion is likely
to happen in 2009-2015. Growth in actual address usage has slowed down
considerably over the last 12-18 months. Also many previous allocated
A-blocks are going to be reclaimed by IANA for reuse by the LIRs pushing
the year of exhaustion a few more years into the future. Further more,
new technology or schemes are making companies, groups or concepts like
GPRS firewalling and tunneling them selves behind a handful of addresses
rather than using millions.

If the Commission is sincerely about actually wanting to address the issue
and maybe making a contribution to the large amount of work already done,
I strongly suggest that they work in close co-operation with both IETF and
the IRTF. These two organizations or frame works if you like are already
working on the subject. What is needed is full time sponsoring of
individual researches (Individual Researches != Companies).

All this said, plenty of more research is needed. A replacement of IPv4 will one
day be needed and we need a working solution years ahead of an actual exhaustion
date. IPv6 is a contribution to develop a solution, but it is not yet the answer
since it does not address the issue of separating what and where. That issue is
much much more likely to kill the the Internet years ahead of an actual address
exhaustion.

We, the industry and individuals, are working hard on both issues, and moral,
political and financial support is welcome, but please use the right channels.

Kind regards

Peter Maersk-Moller             Senior IP Adviser
Ebone Inc.                      Phone  +45 39150835
Lyngbyvej 28                    Fax    +45 39150810
DK-2100 Copenhagen              Email  sslug@sslug
Denmark                         WWW    http://www.ebone.net
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